Elections, Ideology, and Turnover in the U.S. Federal Government

A defining feature of public sector employment is the regular change in elected leadership. Yet, we know little about how elections influence public sector careers. We describe how elections alter policy outputs and disrupt the influence of civil servants over agency decisions. These changes shape the career choices of employees motivated by policy, influence, and wages. Using new Office of Personnel Management data on the careers of millions of federal employees between 1988 and 2011, we evaluate how elections influence employee turnover decisions. We find that presidential elections increase departure rates of career senior employees, particularly in agencies with divergent views relative to the new president and at the start of presidential terms. We also find suggestive evidence that vacancies in high-level positions after elections may induce lower-level executives to stay longer in hopes of advancing. We conclude with implications of our findings for public policy, presidential politics, and public management

The Dark Matter Radial Profile in the Core of the Relaxed Cluster A2589

We present an analysis of a Chandra--ACIS observation of the galaxy cluster A2589 to constrain the radial distribution of the total gravitating matter and the dark matter in the core of the cluster. A2589 is especially well-suited for this analysis because the hot gas in its core region (r < ~0.1 Rvir) is undisturbed by interactions with a central radio source. From the largest radius probed (r=0.07 Rvir) down to r ~0.02 Rvir dark matter dominates the gravitating mass. Over this region the radial profiles of the gravitating and dark matter are fitted well by the NFW and Hernquist profiles predicted by CDM. The density profiles are also described well by power laws, rho ~r^{-alpha}, where alpha=1.37 +/- 0.14 for the gravitating matter and alpha=1.35 +/- 0.21 for the dark matter. These values are consistent with profiles of CDM halos but are significantly larger than alpha ~0.5 found in LSB galaxies and expected from self-interacting dark matter models.Comment: 10 pages, 6 figures, To Appear in The Astrophysical Journal, March 20 issue, a few very minor changes to match copyedited versio

Resistive Magnetohydrodynamic Equilibria in a Torus

It was recently demonstrated that static, resistive, magnetohydrodynamic equilibria, in the presence of spatially-uniform electrical conductivity, do not exist in a torus under a standard set of assumed symmetries and boundary conditions. The difficulty, which goes away in the ``periodic straight cylinder approximation,'' is associated with the necessarily non-vanishing character of the curl of the Lorentz force, j x B. Here, we ask if there exists a spatial profile of electrical conductivity that permits the existence of zero-flow, axisymmetric r esistive equilibria in a torus, and answer the question in the affirmative. However, the physical properties of the conductivity profile are unusual (the conductivity cannot be constant on a magnetic surface, for example) and whether such equilibria are to be considered physically possible remains an open question.Comment: 17 pages, 4 figure

Pricing Excess-of-loss Reinsurance Contracts Against Catastrophic Loss

This paper develops a pricing methodology and pricing estimates for the proposed Federal excess-of- loss (XOL) catastrophe reinsurance contracts. The contracts, proposed by the Clinton Administration, would provide per-occurrence excess-of-loss reinsurance coverage to private insurers and reinsurers, where both the coverage layer and the fixed payout of the contract are based on insurance industry losses, not company losses. In financial terms, the Federal government would be selling earthquake and hurricane catastrophe call options to the insurance industry to cover catastrophic losses in a loss layer above that currently available in the private reinsurance market. The contracts would be sold annually at auction, with a reservation price designed to avoid a government subsidy and ensure that the program would be self supporting in expected value. If a loss were to occur that resulted in payouts in excess of the premiums collected under the policies, the Federal government would use its ability to borrow at the risk-free rate to fund the losses. During periods when the accumulated premiums paid into the program exceed the losses paid, the buyers of the contracts implicitly would be lending money to the Treasury, reducing the costs of government debt. The expected interest on these "loans" offsets the expected financing (borrowing) costs of the program as long as the contracts are priced appropriately. By accessing the Federal government's superior ability to diversify risk inter-temporally, the contracts could be sold at a rate lower than would be required in conventional reinsurance markets, which would potentially require a high cost of capital due to the possibility that a major catastrophe could bankrupt some reinsurers. By pricing the contacts at least to break even, the program would provide for eventual private-market "crowding out" through catastrophe derivatives and other innovative catastrophic risk financing mechanisms. We develop prices for the contracts using two samples of catastrophe losses: (1) historical catastrophic loss experience over the period 1949-1994 as reported by Property Claim Services; and (2) simulated catastrophe losses based on an engineering simulation analysis conducted by Risk Management Solutions. We used maximum likelihood estimation techniques to fit frequency and severity probability distributions to the catastrophic loss data, and then used the distributions to estimate expected losses under the contracts. The reservation price would be determined by adding an administrative expense charge and a risk premium to the expected losses for the specified layer of coverage. We estimate the expected loss component of the government's reservation price for proposed XOL contracts covering the entire U.S., California, Florida, and the Southeast. We used a loss layer of $25-50 billion for illustrative purposes.

Sequence analysis of the cis-regulatory regions of the bithorax complex of Drosophila

The bithorax complex (BX-C) of Drosophila, one of two complexes that act as master regulators of the body plan of the fly, has now been entirely sequenced and comprises approximate to 315,000 bp, only 1.4% of which codes for protein. Analysis of this sequence reveals significantly overrepresented DNA motifs of unknown, as well as known, functions in the nonprotein-coding portion of the sequence. The following types of motifs in that portion are analyzed: (i) concatamers of mono-, di-, and trinucleotides; (ii) tightly clustered hexanucleotides (spaced less than or equal to 5 bases apart); (iii) direct and reverse repeats longer than 20 bp; and (iv) a number of motifs known from biochemical studies to play a role in the regulation of the BX-C. The hexanucleotide AGATAC is remarkably overrepresented and is surmised to play a role in chromosome pairing. The positions of sites of highly overrepresented motifs are plotted for those that occur at more than five sites in the sequence, when <0.5 case is expected. Expected values are based on a third-order Markov chain, which is the optimal order for representing the BXCALL sequence

Examining the role of Scotland’s telephone advice service (NHS 24) for managing health in the community : analysis of routinely collected NHS 24 data

Date of Acceptance: 15/06/2015 Funding This work was supported by the Chief Scientist Office, ScottishExecutive (grant no. CZH/4/692). Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Term Clustering of Syntactic Phrases

Term clustering and syntactic phrase formation are methods for transforming natural language text. Both have had only mixed success as strategies for improving the quality of text representations for document retrieval. Since the strengths of these methods are complementary, we have explored combining them to produce superior representations. In this paper we discuss our implementation of a syntactic phrase generator, as well as our preliminary experiments with producing phrase clusters. These experiments show small improvements in retrieval effectiveness resulting from the use of phrase clusters, but it is clear that corpora much larger than standard information retrieval test collections will be required to thoroughly evaluate the use of this technique

Direct Foreign Investment in the Caribbean: A Legal and Policy Analysis

The purpose of this Article is to delineate the central issues facing countries which seek to encourage direct foreign investment in their local economies, and to suggest which approaches to these issues appear most likely to facilitate the attraction of foreign capital, technology and expertise, while preserving local control over the potentially detrimental effects of such investment

Illusions of gunk

The possibility of gunk has been used to argue against mereological nihilism. This paper explores two responses on the part of the microphysical mereological nihilist: (1) the contingency defence, which maintains that nihilism is true of the actual world; but that at other worlds, composition occurs; (2) the impossibility defence, which maintains that nihilism is necessary true, and so gunk worlds are impossible. The former is argued to be ultimately unstable; the latter faces the explanatorily burden of explaining the illusion that gunk is possible. It is argued that we can discharge this burden by focussing on the contingency of the microphysicalist aspect of microphysical mereological nihilism. The upshot is that gunk-based arguments against microphysical mereological nihilism can be resisted